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NHC Atlantic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130524
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Barry, located just south of the Louisiana coast.

Shower activity has become slightly more organized during the
past several hours in association with a tropical wave located about
midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward Islands.
Development, if any, of the wave is expected to be slow to occur
during the next few days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20
mph. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
more...
Summary for Tropical Storm Barry (AT2/AL022019)
...RAINBANDS OF BARRY BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 the center of Barry was located near 29.1, -91.8 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph. more...
Tropical Storm Barry Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

000
WTNT32 KNHC 130840
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...RAINBANDS OF BARRY BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 91.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM W OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.  For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 91.8 West. Barry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A motion
toward the northwest should begin soon, followed by a turn
toward the north tonight or Sunday.  On the forecast track,
the center of Barry will make landfall along the south-central
Louisiana coast later today.  After landfall, Barry is expected to
move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through
Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast before landfall, and Barry is
expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the Louisiana
coast later today.  Steady weakening is expected after Barry moves
inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.  A mesonet observation in Houma, Louisiana,
recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A storm surge of 2.8 feet was recently reported at a National Ocean
Service tide gauge at New Canal Station.

RAINFALL:  Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley beginning as early as later this morning.  Across
the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches.  By early next week, Barry is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across western
portions of the Tennessee Valley.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area later this morning, with tropical storm conditions currently
spreading across the area.  Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area later this morning.  Tropical storm
conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm Warning area in
southeastern Louisiana at this time.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today.  Wind gusts
to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of
the coasts of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through
tonight.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

more...
Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019

000
WTNT22 KNHC 130840
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022019
0900 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO BILOXI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BILOXI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.  FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  91.8W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 130SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE  60SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  91.8W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  91.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.8N  92.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 30.9N  92.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 150SE 105SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.3N  92.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.8N  93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.5N  92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N  91.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
more...
Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

000
WTNT42 KNHC 130841
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Barry continues to inch its way toward the Louisiana coast with some
of the northern bands now moving across southeastern Louisiana.
Satellite and radar imagery still indicate that the storm has an
asymmetric structure with most of its deep convection located to
the south and east of the center due to ongoing north-northwesterly
shear.  The convection has been expanding though, and some bands are
starting to wrap around the northeastern side, which could indicate
some decrease in shear.  The initial intensity for this advisory is
held at 55 kt, which is in agreement with recent ASCAT passes and a
Dvorak classification from TAFB.  Doppler radar velocities between
10000 and 12000 feet show winds of 60-67 kt, but based on
surface observations and the ASCAT data these might not be mixing
down to the surface.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled
to investigate Barry in a few hours and the data they collect should
provide a better assessment of the storm's intensity.

Barry continues its erratic motion toward the west-northwest.
Smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 300/4 kt.
A northwestward turn should occur soon, and the center is expected
to cross the coast of south-central Louisiana within the next 6 to
12 hours.  After that time, a turn toward the north-northwest and
north is forecast as the cyclone moves inland over the Mississippi
Valley toward a weakness in the ridge.  The NHC track forecast is
nudged a little to the west of the previous one, but it remains on
the eastern side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the
GFS and ECMWF models.

Although not explicitly shown in the forecast below, Barry is
still expected to be a hurricane before it makes landfall later
today.  After landfall, steady weakening is expected and
Barry is forecast to become a tropical depression in about 36 hours
and degenerate into a remnant low in two to three days.  The global
models show the remnant low dissipating over the Ohio Valley in 3
or 4 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the
guidance in the short term, but in line with the consensus models
after that.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of
Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels have already begun
to rise in these areas, with peak inundation expected to occur
later today. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between
Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the
Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash
flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of
which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast
and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 29.1N  91.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 29.8N  92.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 24H  14/0600Z 30.9N  92.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  14/1800Z 32.3N  92.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  15/0600Z 33.8N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  16/0600Z 36.5N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

more...

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